Stock Market

[MJSooner]

Pretty much the only thing I own that is up today.

You were saying......?

[SoonerKA1999]

I'm up 18% on DRIP since I hit my lower limit buy last week.

Now up 27%

[Stinger_1066]

You were saying......?

Going back up in the after-market.

[MJSooner]

Going back up in the after-market.

I'm not getting rich from this yet.

[theresonly187]

grain market has been crashing...

[MJSooner]

grain market has been crashing...

Oil coming down too I guess.

[Stinger_1066]

I'm not getting rich from this yet.

Yes, I feel bad for leading you astray. My account is also hurting big time. I was way over weight on O&G. I knew the gravy train would end eventually, but not as quickly as it has. I have been caught off guard.

I unloaded a bunch of my underperforming O&G yesterday. Well, it has all been underperforming lately, but I kept some of the larger, more stable ones.

I'm still holding my BOIL. I really am at a loss to explain why the price of US NG has come down so much so quickly. The Freeport explosion is one reason, but can't be the only reason. Freeport accounts for only 20% of our LNG export capability. And Europe is still starving for LNG.

Everything I read from the "experts" said NG and LNG demand would increase due to the extraordinarily hot summer, plus the shortages in Europe.

They predicted US NG would go to $12 MMBtu. It made it above $9 for a while, but now it is getting close to $6.

[MJSooner]

Did we find the bottom finally, or nah?

[Stinger_1066]

Did we find the bottom finally, or nah?

I've predicted multiple bottoms and have been wrong every time.

I predicted natural gas would rebound.

I predicted Arch Manning would not commit to Texas.

My track record sucks.

[Stinger_1066]

Did we find the bottom finally, or nah?

Listened to Gunderson's Thursday and Friday shows this morning.

He thinks some of the higher P/E stocks that have declined drastically since the middle of last year have hit bottom and may lead the move back up.

He specifically mentioned PayPal, ServiceNow, Snowflake, NIO, and Teladoc.

[MJSooner]

Listened to Gunderson's Thursday and Friday shows this morning.

He thinks some of the higher P/E stocks that have declined drastically since the middle of last year have hit bottom and may lead the move back up.

He specifically mentioned PayPal, ServiceNow, Snowflake, NIO, and Teladoc.

Come on PayPal! Bought that one at a terrible time.

[Stinger_1066]

Come on PayPal! Bought that one at a terrible time.

He has been bashing Cathie Wood for over a year. I feel like all of a sudden he wants to buy some of her beaten down stocks.

He has been touting SARK (inverse ARKK). Maybe now if finally the time to buy ARKK?

[MJSooner]

What did I miss that sent the market into the shitter?

[Sooner in SoCal]

What did I miss that sent the market into the shitter?

consumer confidence numbers

https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#today

bookmark that and check it each morning

lots of reports hit at 830est

[MJSooner]

consumer confidence numbers

https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#today

bookmark that and check it each morning

lots of reports hit at 830est

It started off this morning positive for a while then the next time I looked it had tanked.

[Sooner in SoCal]

It started off this morning positive for a while then the next time I looked it had tanked.

did you look at the calendar for today?

what does it say for time on confidence number?

[MJSooner]

did you look at the calendar for today?

what does it say for time on confidence number?

No, I read your post to mean it came out at 0830 EST so 1,000 pardons.

[Stinger_1066]

consumer confidence numbers

https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#today

bookmark that and check it each morning

lots of reports hit at 830est

No, I read your post to mean it came out at 0830 EST so 1,000 pardons.

If I'm reading this correctly, looking at the US today (June 29th) in central time:

6 am: Mortgage application data for the week ending Jun 24th - rose by 0.7% vs 4.2% the previous period.

7:30 - revised Q1 GDP

some other stuff

8 am: J Powell speaks

[Sooner in SoCal]

If I'm reading this correctly, looking at the US today (June 29th) in central time:

6 am: Mortgage application data for the week ending Jun 24th - rose by 0.7% vs 4.2% the previous period.

7:30 - revised Q1 GDP

some other stuff

8 am: J Powell speaks

pretty much,

i like the high med low labels for usual market volatility effect of the report

[theresonly187]

grain market is just taking a massive beating...
wheat down almost $5/bushel in the past 6 weeks....
this might be the first time in 31 years of farming i actually lose money....
probably not.....but it's a perfect shitstorm this year....drought/horrible crop.....prices crashing....and i paid ridiculous prices for fertilizer/chemical/fuel...
and the milo crop is looking like a drought bust......the late beans still have a chance..

[Middle Aged Man]

grain market is just taking a massive beating...
wheat down almost $5/bushel in the past 6 weeks....
this might be the first time in 31 years of farming i actually lose money....
probably not.....but it's a perfect shitstorm this year....drought/horrible crop.....prices crashing....and i paid ridiculous prices for fertilizer/chemical/fuel...
and the milo crop is looking like a drought bust......the late beans still have a chance..

Why is wheat down if Russia is keeping Ukraine from supplying the world? And Biden said that the coming food shortages are Putin's fault. Seems like that would drive prices up. I don't know much about it, but low supply should drive prices higher right?

I get how you are going to feel pain if prices are way down, but I don't understand why they are down.

[theresonly187]

Why is wheat down if Russia is keeping Ukraine from supplying the world? And Biden said that the coming food shortages are Putin's fault. Seems like that would drive prices up. I don't know much about it, but low supply should drive prices higher right?

I get how you are going to feel pain if prices are way down, but I don't understand why they are down.

i've been in the business for 31 years and i don't understand it....
the crop from texas to northern kansas has been terrible....
supply will be extremely short for the next year...yet prices are crashing....so i don't know....it's opposite of what you'd expect

[Middle Aged Man]

i've been in the business for 31 years and i don't understand it....
the crop from texas to northern kansas has been terrible....
supply will be extremely short for the next year...yet prices are crashing....so i don't know....it's opposite of what you'd expect

Makes me think of the movie "Trading Places" where the Duke brothers try to manipulate the commodities market. I'm sure there isn't any of that going on.

[sheepdogs]

i've been in the business for 31 years and i don't understand it....
the crop from texas to northern kansas has been terrible....
supply will be extremely short for the next year...yet prices are crashing....so i don't know....it's opposite of what you'd expect

It's called pump and dump. The fundamentals supported a fair share of the price rise while speculation added to the mix, but once the larger players were happy with their gains the selling occurs with likely some shorting to boot.

[theresonly187]

It's called pump and dump. The fundamentals supported a fair share of the price rise while speculation added to the mix, but once the larger players were happy with their gains the selling occurs with likely some shorting to boot.

yeah......the big players make a killing and move on the the next scam...
probably moved from crypto to grain.....what's the next move?

[Sooner in SoCal]

grain market is just taking a massive beating...
wheat down almost $5/bushel in the past 6 weeks....
this might be the first time in 31 years of farming i actually lose money....
probably not.....but it's a perfect shitstorm this year....drought/horrible crop.....prices crashing....and i paid ridiculous prices for fertilizer/chemical/fuel...
and the milo crop is looking like a drought bust......the late beans still have a chance..

Was it you or someone else that sold some futures contract on wheat?

Bummer about the market tanking. Same crap goes on in the crude/fuel pits as well.

[Stinger_1066]

i've been in the business for 31 years and i don't understand it....
the crop from texas to northern kansas has been terrible....
supply will be extremely short for the next year...yet prices are crashing....so i don't know....it's opposite of what you'd expect

Was it you or someone else that sold some futures contract on wheat?

Bummer about the market tanking. Same crap goes on in the crude/fuel pits as well.

I owned WEAT, SOYB and CORN ETFs. Sold for a small profit. Could have cashed out at a higher price, but the downturn happened quickly.

[Stinger_1066]

I'm very bearish right now. Got fed up with the volatility so have gone mostly to cash for the moment.

I don't think inflation has been tamed. 2Q GDP is projected to be more negative than 1Q. Earnings reporting season begins in a couple of weeks. I'm expecting more companies to warn that the second half of the year will not be as good for them as initially projected.

I feel like I missed the boat on taking more inverse positions earlier in the year, but maybe not.

[theresonly187]

Was it you or someone else that sold some futures contract on wheat?

Bummer about the market tanking. Same crap goes on in the crude/fuel pits as well.

i sold 18k bushels on a forward contract .....was concerned i wouldn't harvest enuf to fill it...
my average price was almost $11/bushel....i got enuf to fill the contracts and had about 5k bushels more..
i know a few farmers here that had contracts down at $7/bushel.....i didn't get the top but i did a lot better than $7...

[VUGear]

The coming weakness is an eventual bear market cure

We don't typically celebrate a weak economy. In an ideal world, you want stronger economic growth joined by stronger earnings growth. This is not an ideal world.

We have weakening economic growth that is going to be joined by weakening earnings growth. That should invite some inflation relief, which is good, because it might lower the market's temperature with respect to rate-hike fears. It isn't indisputably good, however, because what the stock market will be left with is weak earnings growth.

The good news is that there have been some signs of improvement in the stock, bond, and commodity markets recently. The sobering point is that it has been driven mainly by an expected bad economic outcome.

Eventually, the economic weakness will be the cure for this bear market, because it will invite more credible earnings estimates that provide a better determination of true value that lends itself to a reduction in volatility and more conviction behind buying efforts.

[Stinger_1066]

The coming weakness is an eventual bear market cure

Of course. All bear markets end eventually and things go up from there.

What would really be nice is if they could pinpoint the date when the bear market ends.

Also, the best way to end inflation is to increase supply, not destroy demand. But the Fed has no control over supply, so they destroy demand with interest rate hikes and force us into a recession.

Although, interest rates are still historically low. When I graduated from college in 1982 they were over 10% if my memory is correct.

[VUGear]

What would really be nice is if they could pinpoint the date when the bear market ends.

November 5, 2024?

[Stinger_1066]

November 5, 2024?

I don't see this one lasting that long, but could be.

[Stinger_1066]

In electrical engineering school we were taught about the reaction of systems to an impulse input.

The result is called the dampening effect - oscillations of highs and lows that diminish over time.

Covid was a demand impulse in the negative direction, followed by a recovery that introduced a negative supply impulse. We're now entering the next phase of negative demand. It will take 5 y;ears or so for the dampening effect to diminish to steady state, so we'll go through a number of recovery and recession cycles before the normal upward trend resumes.

That is assuming no other black swan events.

My 5 year estimate is just ball park. It could be less, or it could be more. Most likely more.

[SoonerMBA]

I don't see this one lasting that long, but could be.

The question for when a bear market or recession ends is pinpointing when it began. If it turns out we've already been in recession for the past year, we can anticipate it ending sooner than if we're just heading into it now. I'm counting on the former.

[Stinger_1066]

The question for when a bear market or recession ends is pinpointing when it began. If it turns out we've already been in recession for the past year, we can anticipate it ending sooner than if we're just heading into it now. I'm counting on the former.

I've been told that the textbook definition of recession is two straight quarters of negative GDP growth. Q1 2022 was negative, and Q2 is projected to be even more negative.

Quarter over quarter GDP grew approximately 5% quarter over quarter from the end of Q3 2020 through the end of Q4 2021, except Q3 2021, when it grew by only a small amount.

Also, the stock market peaked in mid-November 2021 and then began a sharp decline.

Corporate earnings growth was good for most of 2021 and even Q1 2022. I expect Q2 earnings will be decent, but I also expect many warnings about the prospects for Q3 and Q4.

Also, there was a pretty consistent decline in unemployment during 2021, along with consistent job growth.

But if by "the past year" you mean since July 1st, 2021, you might be spot on. I feel like we are definitely in one now, and I think it will get worse before it gets better.

[sheepdogs]

US Dollar hit a 20 year high today as reverberations in the financial markets continues to push investors to safe haven destinations.

[theresonly187]

finally had a big winner...enph...

[Stinger_1066]

finally had a big winner...enph...

I'm in at $182. Hard to trust anything right now though. Bumping up against resistance now, but at least the chart has a pattern of rising bottoms.

If it breaks above $216.5, that will be a good sign.

[theresonly187]

I'm in at $182. Hard to trust anything right now though. Bumping up against resistance now, but at least the chart has a pattern of rising bottoms.

If it breaks above $216.5, that will be a good sign.

sold mine at $212......will get back in low $190s....or above $212 if i breaks thru

[Stinger_1066]

I'm not getting rich from this yet.

Up almost 30% today. I'm still in the red though.

[MJSooner]

Up almost 30% today. I'm still in the red though.

Same.

[Stinger_1066]

sold mine at $212......will get back in low $190s....or above $212 if i breaks thru

ENPH hit $219 earlier today, but I know it is all about the close.

Another one you might want to look at if you are interested in shorting or buying the next dip - SEDG. Their chart looks very much like the chart of ENPH and they are a similar type company (solar power).

[Stinger_1066]

sold mine at $212......will get back in low $190s....or above $212 if i breaks thru

Wheat headed back up? Temporary or is there some good news out?

[theresonly187]

ENPH hit $219 earlier today, but I know it is all about the close.

Another one you might want to look at if you are interested in shorting or buying the next dip - SEDG. Their chart looks very much like the chart of ENPH and they are a similar type company (solar power).

i don't like the sedg chart...
but if it pops thru that $295 level and holds...might be worth a second look

[theresonly187]

Wheat headed back up? Temporary or is there some good news out?

haven't heard any news.....but it dropped 36% off its high so funds might be looking to pump it back up......for another dump

[Stinger_1066]

i don't like the sedg chart...
but if it pops thru that $295 level and holds...might be worth a second look

Hope so. I'm in at $265.

[theresonly187]

bought enph back this morning...

[Stinger_1066]

bought enph back this morning...

Closed at $216.45 on Friday, which is where I saw resistance.

I assume you think it will break out above that number in the near future?

One thing that concerns me is that CPI for June will be announced on Wednesday morning. I think we'll see an overall dip in the market on that news. I'm holding off on new purchases until I see what happens on Wednesday.

[theresonly187]

Closed at $216.45 on Friday, which is where I saw resistance.

I assume you think it will break out above that number in the near future?

One thing that concerns me is that CPI for June will be announced on Wednesday morning. I think we'll see an overall dip in the market on that news. I'm holding off on new purchases until I see what happens on Wednesday.

i had resistance/support a bit lower ....213ish.....maybe i'm off a bit...
we'll see how it closes today...