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    Originally posted by OU48A View Post
    FYI.

    And it has been updated

    Comment


      Storms are initiating along the dryline in the south-central Texas panhandle. If the latest high-res guidance is to be believed, one of those cells will go bananas and become a real threat in a couple of hours as it approaches the OK/TX border (moving into better moisture). In southern Oklahoma, the lack of heating/mixing has kept things in check for the most part, but instability is building.

      Comment


        This is fucking with me trying to watch the UEFA Champions League semifinal match on Channel 9.
        Live Free or Die!

        Comment


          Originally posted by Dr. Argus Beefstick View Post

          And it has been updated
          YEP...This isn't good.
          This is one of those times when it would probably be a good idea to let people leave work and school early well in advance, particularly if they don't a certified shelter on site.
          -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



          The Moderate Risk has been expanded eastward across a large portion of OK, as the air mass continues to destabilize and remain free of storms. Visible imagery continues to show pockets of heating, and increasing CU fields near the Red River.

          Surface observations show an unbroken plume of 68-70 F dewpoints now into southern OK, with GPS water vapor sensors indicating a deepening moist boundary layer with values increasing to over 1.50" over northwest TX.

          Midday soundings reveal a capping inversion below 700 mb which is helping to maintain the pristine air mass and guard against early contamination. This inversion may also help to subdue the number of storms later today across OK and northern TX.

          Any supercell over the warm sector will have the potential to produce a strong tornado, aided by midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km and dewpoints of 68 F or greater. Later this evening, storms moving out of the Panhandle may eventually merge into a severe MCS with significant wind damage potential. In addition, further supercell develop may occur tonight along the baroclinic zone extending eastward across OK.



          Last edited by OU48A; 05-04-2022, 02:09 PM.

          Comment


            Originally posted by OU48A View Post
            YEP...This isn't good.
            This is one of those times when it would probably be a good idea to let people leave work and school early well in advance, particularly if they don't a certified shelter on site.
            -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



            The Moderate Risk has been expanded eastward across a large portion of OK, as the air mass continues to destabilize and remain free of storms. Visible imagery continues to show pockets of heating, and increasing CU fields near the Red River.

            Surface observations show an unbroken plume of 68-70 F dewpoints now into southern OK, with GPS water vapor sensors indicating a deepening moist boundary layer with values increasing to over 1.50" over northwest TX.

            Midday soundings reveal a capping inversion below 700 mb which is helping to maintain the pristine air mass and guard against early contamination. This inversion may also help to subdue the number of storms later today across OK and northern TX.

            Any supercell over the warm sector will have the potential to produce a strong tornado, aided by midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km and dewpoints of 68 F or greater. Later this evening, storms moving out of the Panhandle may eventually merge into a severe MCS with significant wind damage potential. In addition, further supercell develop may occur tonight along the baroclinic zone extending eastward across OK.



            I'm surprised you haven't already made like Gusty.

            [/QUOTE]
            Live Free or Die!

            Comment


              I see a cell that just crossed the Red River east is Wichita Falls.

              Comment


                Comment


                  Originally posted by OU48A View Post
                  How late are kids at school these days anyway?

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by MJSooner View Post

                    How late are kids at school these days anyway?
                    It varies a lot from district to district and from school to school, but schools are also responsible for students while on busses that can run for a decent period of time after school is out.

                    Comment


                      yeah....school should be out...and there's absolutely nothing within a 100 miles of moore

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by MJSooner View Post

                        How late are kids at school these days anyway?
                        My wife's school (OKC) lets out at 3:15. David Payne just said nothing to worry about for a few more hours.
                        Live Free or Die!

                        Comment


                          Looking at visible satellite, I'm still seeing gravity waves in the low-level clouds over southern Oklahoma. Hopefully, that's a sign that the lingering stabilization from the storms that went through this morning will hang on enough to make it difficult for low-level rotation to develop when storms actually fire. Still a lot of daylight left, though.

                          Comment


                            If there was anything imminent to worry about, Channel 9 wouldn't be showing UEFA Champions League soccer. But they are.
                            Live Free or Die!

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Stinger_1066 View Post

                              My wife's school (OKC) lets out at 3:15. David Payne just said nothing to worry about for a few more hours.
                              I think David's right, even though it feels a bit dirty to say it. Well, let me clarify: I don't think we're going to see anything fire for at least the next hour or so. Beyond that, it's a question of how much the atmosphere recovers, how much of a kick the upper-level jet provides as it punches in, etc.

                              Another encouraging sign is that the cell that fired up in the south-central Texas Panhandle, the one that the high-res guidance pegged to turn into a beast, just sputtered and died. Guidance is definitely overplaying the atmosphere's ability to fire off sustained cells so far; the million-dollar question is "how much?"

                              EDIT - Another consideration, at least for now, is that the upper-level flow over western OK is interacting with the anvil of that big, cluttered complex of mostly rain around the Kansas border. It's like a boulder in a river, with the flow piling up (converging) behind it, and converging flow aloft is bad for updrafts trying to develop near the ground. As that complex moves away, things in southwest OK may start to look more energetic.
                              Last edited by ouwxgrad_v2; 05-04-2022, 02:52 PM.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by ouwxgrad_v2 View Post

                                I think David's right, even though it feels a bit dirty to say it. Well, let me clarify: I don't think we're going to see anything fire for at least the next hour or so. Beyond that, it's a question of how much the atmosphere recovers, how much of a kick the upper-level jet provides as it punches in, etc.

                                Another encouraging sign is that the cell that fired up in the south-central Texas Panhandle, the one that the high-res guidance pegged to turn into a beast, just sputtered and died. Guidance is definitely overplaying the atmosphere's ability to fire off sustained cells so far; the million-dollar question is "how much?"
                                I think 48A already headed for his storm shelter. He'll be down there for a while.
                                Live Free or Die!

                                Comment


                                  Originally posted by Stinger_1066 View Post
                                  If there was anything imminent to worry about, Channel 9 wouldn't be showing UEFA Champions League soccer. But they are.
                                  I hope RM imminently bounces City out of this thing.

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by Darth Fazande View Post

                                    I hope RM imminently bounces City out of this thing.
                                    Payne just reiterated - nothing to worry about for a few hours. Meanwhile, while he was talking, Manchester City went up over Real Madrid 1 - 0. Missed the goal. Thanks David!

                                    I'm pulling for a Liverpool v Man City final.
                                    Live Free or Die!

                                    Comment


                                      Originally posted by Stinger_1066 View Post

                                      Payne just reiterated - nothing to worry about for a few hours. Meanwhile, while he was talking, Manchester City went up over Real Madrid 1 - 0. Missed the goal. Thanks David!

                                      I'm pulling for a Liverpool v Man City final.
                                      City using the Lincoln Riley "How to Protect a Lead" playbook there...

                                      Comment


                                        Originally posted by Darth Fazande View Post

                                        City using the Lincoln Riley "How to Protect a Lead" playbook there...
                                        Off topic. Post reported.

                                        Comment


                                          The warm front is on the south edge of Norman. It will be interesting to see how much further north it goes.

                                          Comment


                                            Heavy rain is going to break the drought in some locations.

                                            Comment


                                              had a real toad strangler pass thru here...probably got 1-2" .....really didn't need that

                                              Comment


                                                Deer Creek schools sent out an email that kids could leave without any penalty around 12:45. My kiddo drove home. I'm knocking off early, tired of chasing inventory for work.

                                                Comment


                                                  I'm looking at the area east of Lubbock right now. A lot of cirrus, but there is definitely robust, surface-based convection trying to get its act together. (Still nothing closer to home; this little cluster of showers is not a concern.)

                                                  Comment


                                                    Logging off for a bit. Far southern Oklahoma is starting to look a bit more interesting (still no clear breakthroughs, though), and hey, Wichita Falls, keep an eye on that thing that just fired east of Lubbock. (It's still a ways off and looks like it'll pass north of you at the moment, but be aware.)

                                                    Comment


                                                      Originally posted by Darth Fazande View Post

                                                      City using the Lincoln Riley "How to Protect a Lead" playbook there...
                                                      Wow! What a finish.

                                                      Liverpool v Real Madrid in the final.

                                                      Now, back to your regularly scheduled fear porn.

                                                      Payne says 5 inches for the OKC metro. Ya'll gonna drown.

                                                      I'm sure my septic system is going to get over loaded and we won't be able to flush toilets until noon tomorrow.
                                                      Live Free or Die!

                                                      Comment


                                                        Morgan says the warm front has stalled in its northern advance. It's still cool at my house in NW Norman

                                                        Comment


                                                          a report says.... Hodograph is looking favorable for rotating supercells.

                                                          Comment


                                                            It’s quite a bit warmer than an hour ago. I’m just west of Riverwind. Really humid outside.

                                                            Comment


                                                              Originally posted by OU48A View Post
                                                              Morgan says the warm front has stalled in its northern advance. It's still cool at my house in NW Norman
                                                              It is 70 just south of the Canadian River in Newcastle

                                                              Comment


                                                                I dunno, sure seems like the cloud cover is dampening things. I think I've seen the sun for about five minutes total all day.

                                                                Comment


                                                                  I'm halfway between the OKC East and Norman mesonet stations and my Thermopen instant read cooking thermo says it 71 when I hold up in the air. Mesonet says OKC East 66 and Norman 67 .

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    Originally posted by theresonly187 View Post
                                                                    yeah....school should be out...and there's absolutely nothing within a 100 miles of moore
                                                                    I'll give Moore a pass when it comes to 'naders.

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      .

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        Can only pop in for a second, but folks, be aware! That cell east of Purcell is getting its act together very quickly now, and I don't think it'll be the last one. (Two other cells further down I-35 merit attention as well, one of which could threaten Purcell on its current track. Not severe warned yet, but once they get going, they won't take long tonight.)

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          We just returned from a few days in Eureka Springs, and after watching the weather stations there I have a totally new appreciation for the quality of all our folks (maybe not Fox 25, but the rest for sure)!
                                                                          I swear the radar they were using on those Ozarks stations were the same as Gary England had when I was in high school!
                                                                          One goober's radar had a mouse arrow showing, and it moved around the screen whenever his arm did!
                                                                          It was pretty scary!

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            Double ‘naders!

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              Tornado on the ground near Maud and Seminole.

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                Gardner getting some pretty amazing live shots

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  It concern me that this is happening where it is and what will be coming from the west

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    They seem to be firing along hwy 81 , hope they don't do this all night.

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      Huge tornado in Seminole. That thing looks nasty.

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        Originally posted by BrokebackSooner View Post
                                                                                        Huge tornado in Seminole. That thing looks nasty.
                                                                                        It’s starting to form a wedge.

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          Is a 2-mile wide circulation considered as big as Payne is making it out to be?

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            Originally posted by bushmaster06 View Post
                                                                                            Is a 2-mile wide circulation considered as big as Payne is making it out to be?
                                                                                            It's certainly bigger than I'd want to be in. Storm is cycling back up again.

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              One trailer house and a roof off a 100 year old building. He needs to stop promoting during storms. We get it. You said it was going to happen. You have the most powerful radar. Just do your job and be humble.

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                Tornado coming across the state line near Vinson (I-40), storm spooling up southwest of Ft. Cobb, the jet is picking up according to Payne.

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  Another tornado looks to be forming south of Tecumsah.

                                                                                                  Storm chaser in Foard County, TX was right in the middle of a forming tornado. Blew out the back window of his vehicle.

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    Originally posted by BrokebackSooner View Post
                                                                                                    Another tornado looks to be forming south of Tecumsah.

                                                                                                    Storm chaser in Foard County, TX was right in the middle of a forming tornado. Blew out the back window of his vehicle.
                                                                                                    Yep. With luck, it'll pass between Tecumseh and Earlsboro. I wouldn't count on it if I was in Earlsboro, though.

                                                                                                    Meanwhile, folks to the west (like myself) just have to wait and hope that the stuff near the TX border lines out before it gets here late tonight. What a stupid day. I'll say it again: if you ever hear a weather enthusiast saying anything that could reasonably be taken as rooting for a day like today to happen, punch 'em. Face, kidneys, whatever works for you.

                                                                                                    EDIT - Oh goodness, that thing's not going to hit Tecumseh, is it? Tough to get a fix on the potential tornado path on radar because the background circulation is so broad.

                                                                                                    SECOND EDIT - Also, does somebody have a goat they'd be willing to sacrifice so we can kill the storm that hit Tecumseh before? Dang thing's intensifying again.

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      Originally posted by ouwxgrad_v2 View Post

                                                                                                      Yep. With luck, it'll pass between Tecumseh and Earlsboro. I wouldn't count on it if I was in Earlsboro, though.

                                                                                                      Meanwhile, folks to the west (like myself) just have to wait and hope that the stuff near the TX border lines out before it gets here late tonight. What a stupid day. I'll say it again: if you ever hear a weather enthusiast saying anything that could reasonably be taken as rooting for a day like today to happen, punch 'em. Face, kidneys, whatever works for you.

                                                                                                      EDIT - Oh goodness, that thing's not going to hit Tecumseh, is it? Tough to get a fix on the potential tornado path on radar because the background circulation is so broad.

                                                                                                      SECOND EDIT - Also, does somebody have a goat they'd be willing to sacrifice so we can kill the storm that hit Tecumseh before? Dang thing's intensifying again.
                                                                                                      No goat but i'd be willing to sacrifice Sly... :)

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