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Severe Weather Thread Vol. 3-Featuring SATP

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    Weather knower-abouters, where is the best place to find longer term forecasts? I look at the 6-10 and 8-14 (plus monthly and seasonal) NOAA ones but they don't seem that accurate. Any good people on Youtube or somewhere who let the poor peasants watch for free?

    Wondering if anyone sees any signs of a pattern change out there. I'm renovating part of my yard and keeping the soil moist is almost impossible. If I thought there was any sign of hope from Mother Nature I'd just wait, but if it's not going to change anytime I may as well try now and just not open my water bill.

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      I kind of like the maps at pivotalweather.com for longer range precip forcasts. there's one that goes out 30 days and others that are10 to 16 days, find the total qpf line along the left side and then when you move your mouse over a spot it will tell you the amounts. I never put much stock in one run but when you get a few runs back to back showing the same thing you get an idea of a future trend.

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        Originally posted by ChocoLab View Post
        Weather knower-abouters, where is the best place to find longer term forecasts? I look at the 6-10 and 8-14 (plus monthly and seasonal) NOAA ones but they don't seem that accurate. Any good people on Youtube or somewhere who let the poor peasants watch for free?

        Wondering if anyone sees any signs of a pattern change out there. I'm renovating part of my yard and keeping the soil moist is almost impossible. If I thought there was any sign of hope from Mother Nature I'd just wait, but if it's not going to change anytime I may as well try now and just not open my water bill.
        They're not great, but that far out, nobody's forecast really is. Forecast accuracy just deteriorates in general when you get out beyond a week or so. Stupid butterflies and their stupid flapping wings.

        For the foreseeable future, though, if you're looking for a pattern change that will bring more consistent chances for soaking rain, I don't have much good news. We're currently in a bit of a blocking pattern, keeping the trough out west from swinging through. That trough is expected to lift north over the next few days, and then a heat ridge is expected to build up over the desert southwest that's going to keep shunting everything to the north, away from us. It's the sort of pattern that sets in for long periods of the summer, but we're seeing it in early May this year. Maybe (hopefully, in terms of rainfall) it'll break down before summer sets in for good, but the time frame for that is outside the "skillful forecast" window.

        Side note: The next few days have chances for random clusters of thunderstorms to pop up and maybe give a decent localized drink, so maybe you'll get lucky. Widespread rainfall just doesn't look to be in the cards.
        Last edited by ouwxgrad_v2; 05-11-2022, 09:57 AM.

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          Originally posted by soonerBAS View Post
          I kind of like the maps at pivotalweather.com for longer range precip forcasts. there's one that goes out 30 days and others that are10 to 16 days, find the total qpf line along the left side and then when you move your mouse over a spot it will tell you the amounts. I never put much stock in one run but when you get a few runs back to back showing the same thing you get an idea of a future trend.
          That's one of my "go-to" sites as well. One note of caution: forecast runs tend to regress toward the climatological mean over time, so run-to-run consistency in a forecast 30 days out doesn't necessarily count for much. (1-2 weeks out, I'm with you.)

          Comment


            Originally posted by ouwxgrad_v2 View Post

            That's one of my "go-to" sites as well. One note of caution: forecast runs tend to regress toward the climatological mean over time, so run-to-run consistency in a forecast 30 days out doesn't necessarily count for much. (1-2 weeks out, I'm with you.)
            I noticed that too.

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              Originally posted by ouwxgrad_v2 View Post

              That's one of my "go-to" sites as well. One note of caution: forecast runs tend to regress toward the climatological mean over time, so run-to-run consistency in a forecast 30 days out doesn't necessarily count for much. (1-2 weeks out, I'm with you.)
              yea the 30 day one is mostly for fun, but when you are in a drought you'll hang onto anything for a little hope.

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                Originally posted by soonerBAS View Post

                yea the 30 day one is mostly for fun, but when you are in a drought you'll hang onto anything for a little hope.
                I hear ya. The term that gets thrown around among folks in the weater biz (at least the ones I've been around) is "wishcasting."

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                  ouwxgrad_v2 Thanks... Not looking for a soaker, just maybe a return to normalish May weather where it's less than a million degrees and we have at least periodic chances of rain.

                  I think it's like bas said, I'm just looking for any signs of hope.

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                    Originally posted by soonerBAS View Post



                    there was one day last winter when there was dusting of snow in OKC and the local tv stations were on wall to wall coverage, with live reports coming in from all over the metro and I said the same thing... how did the early settlers ever survive without all these tv weathermen telling them there's a snowflake falling.


                    on a positive note, 4 tenths of rain last night, was hoping for more as it rained almost all night. just a nice slow soaking rain, probably did more good than that 3 inches we got a week or so ago that came in about an hour.
                    We get wall to wall coverage like that not necessarily because of any real threat, but because of ratings ($$$). When you view the “news” through the lens of entertainment (however shitty it may be) it makes more sense.

                    How many of us watch severe weather coverage not just to be informed of what may be coming our way, but also to see tornadoes?

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                      Next major chance of rain: September when the state fair is in town.

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                        Originally posted by Harry Weenis View Post
                        Next major chance of rain: September when the state fair is in town.
                        nope...june....when wheat harvest starts

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                          Originally posted by theresonly187 View Post

                          nope...june....when wheat harvest starts
                          What does rain do to bailed hay? There’s a decent-sized hay field near me and he bailed it last Sunday before we started in on our 7ish” of rain. He got most of it out, but there are still 20-25 round bails still sitting there.

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                            Originally posted by bushmaster06 View Post
                            What does rain do to bailed hay? There’s a decent-sized hay field near me and he bailed it last Sunday before we started in on our 7ish” of rain. He got most of it out, but there are still 20-25 round bails still sitting there.
                            hay baled before a rain in round bales is fine...especially if it's baled with net wrap....it sheds water very well....
                            much better than cut hay laying on the ground.....it can all mold if u can't get it raked/dried out quickly...
                            hopefully he moved the ones where water might stand.....if they're sitting in standing water they'll soak up a bunch of it....
                            fun fact you city slickers may not be aware of....
                            if u bale hay before it gets a chance to dry completely....the bales will start heating up from the inside out...
                            they will eventually spontaneously combust....and if they're inside a barn.....hopefully it's insured...
                            Last edited by theresonly187; 05-11-2022, 07:17 PM.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by theresonly187 View Post

                              hay baled before a rain in round bales is fine...especially if it's baled with net wrap....it sheds water very well....
                              much better than cut hay laying on the ground.....it can all mold if u can't get it raked/dried out quickly...
                              hopefully he moved the ones where water might stand.....if they're sitting in standing water they'll soak up a bunch of it....
                              fun fact you city slickers may not be aware of....
                              if u bale hay before it gets a chance to dry completely....the bales will start heating up from the inside out...
                              they will eventually spontaneously combust....and if they're inside a barn.....hopefully it's insured...
                              I guess square bales don’t fare as well because of their shape?

                              I did know that. Once as a kid I filled a hole with grass clippings and after a while the center was almost smoldering.

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                                Saw a post from the Oklahoma mesonet today that Kenton Oklahoma had a chance to get .25 rain today, if it happened it would be the first time in 256 days.

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                                  Originally posted by bushmaster06 View Post

                                  I guess square bales don’t fare as well because of their shape?

                                  I did know that. Once as a kid I filled a hole with grass clippings and after a while the center was almost smoldering.
                                  correct......square bales don't shed water...it soaks right in....

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by soonerBAS View Post
                                    Saw a post from the Oklahoma mesonet today that Kenton Oklahoma had a chance to get .25 rain today, if it happened it would be the first time in 256 days.
                                    That's what they get for observing mountain time.

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                                      The radar looks like I may get a little rain shower in a bit.

                                      *fingers crossed*

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                                        Originally posted by bushmaster06 View Post
                                        The radar looks like I may get a little rain shower in a bit.

                                        *fingers crossed*
                                        I've been up since 3:30 and its been sitting on the border between Logan and Kingfisher counties the entire time, refusing to move east. I can hear the thunder, see the lightning, and we're getting a few sprinkles, but I'm afraid it is going to dissipate before it gets to me, and I'm further west than you.
                                        Live Free or Die!

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                                          Originally posted by Stinger_1066 View Post

                                          I've been up since 3:30 and its been sitting on the border between Logan and Kingfisher counties the entire time, refusing to move east. I can hear the thunder, see the lightning, and we're getting a few sprinkles, but I'm afraid it is going to dissipate before it gets to me, and I'm further west than you.
                                          Dude…


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                                            Originally posted by bushmaster06 View Post
                                            Dude…

                                            We got a trace. If it doesn't rain tonight then I'm going to have to water my garden.
                                            Live Free or Die!

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                                              Alright smart weather folks - we gonna get some rain in OKC metro tonight? We have 7v7 and I'm trying to plan out my drinking.

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                                                got a nice unexpected shower last night...around 3/10"
                                                too late to save the wheat crop but the grain sorghum can use it...and it will help with soybean planting...

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                                                  Originally posted by theresonly187 View Post
                                                  got a nice unexpected shower last night...around 3/10"
                                                  too late to save the wheat crop but the grain sorghum can use it...and it will help with soybean planting...
                                                  So expect wheat futures to go up even higher? They started rising rapidly again last week after India shut off exports.
                                                  Live Free or Die!

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                                                    Originally posted by Stinger_1066 View Post

                                                    So expect wheat futures to go up even higher? They started rising rapidly again last week after India shut off exports.
                                                    i have no idea what the market will do...but the wheat crop in oklahoma might be the worst i've seen since i started 32 years ago...

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                                                      Crazy wind action last night around midnight. It felt like the house was getting pummeled on all sides and from directly above, i.e., downdrafts.

                                                      Then, at 4 am, it was completely calm.
                                                      Live Free or Die!

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                                                        Originally posted by Stinger_1066 View Post
                                                        Crazy wind action last night around midnight. It felt like the house was getting pummeled on all sides and from directly above, i.e., downdrafts.

                                                        Then, at 4 am, it was completely calm.
                                                        yeah....the mesonet says max wind gust today of 41mph.....i would have guessed 60-80mph....
                                                        sounded like the roof was going to come off....

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                                                          last night my phone went off....weather alert warning of 80mph winds....
                                                          max winds were probably in the 50mph range when it got to me ....and we got another 1/3" of rain...
                                                          more chances coming friday night and monday....

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                                                            We had 80 mph winds, couple trailer houses lost their roofs, lot tree limbs down. Had an inch of rain but it came in about 15 minutes so lot of run off but did put water in the pond.

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                                                              It blew hard enough to knock the power out for a couple of hours.

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                                                                My Facebook memories are telling me it's Emily Sutton Bird Squawk Day...

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                                                                  Originally posted by Fostercluck View Post
                                                                  My Facebook memories are telling me it's Emily Sutton Bird Squawk Day...
                                                                  What is that?

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                                                                    Originally posted by bushmaster06 View Post

                                                                    What is that?
                                                                    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JP5p1fWDcBs

                                                                    I dunno if she is still chasing, but she was terrrrrrrible in 2013.

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                                                                      looks like a bunch of rain coming in on monday/tuesday

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                                                                        really liking what I am seeing in the forecasts for the next few days and even longer, the 2 week forecast has us at just under 4 inches predicted. the best thing is it's not like one little spot but rather all of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. if this goes like it's showing might actually get a hay cutting this summer.

                                                                        very fall like outside this morning, temps in the 50's with a north wind.

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                                                                          Originally posted by soonerBAS View Post
                                                                          really liking what I am seeing in the forecasts for the next few days and even longer, the 2 week forecast has us at just under 4 inches predicted. the best thing is it's not like one little spot but rather all of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. if this goes like it's showing might actually get a hay cutting this summer.

                                                                          very fall like outside this morning, temps in the 50's with a north wind.
                                                                          I'm supposed to be playing in a scramble tournament tomorrow morning at 9 am. I've been practicing all week in shorts and t-shirt. I might have to wear wet weather gear tomorrow.

                                                                          Predicted morning low of 58, high of 65, 30% chance of storms.

                                                                          Live Free or Die!

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            One of my possible retirement destinations in Northern Michigan (Gaylord) took an EF3 yesterday with two dead. First EF3+ in Michigan in ten years. Storm later skirted just north of our family lake property.

                                                                            https://www.weather.gov/apx/severe-2022May20



                                                                            Last edited by Fostercluck; 05-21-2022, 02:54 PM.

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                                                                              enid supposed to get 3" of rain next week....
                                                                              looks like it will be a slow soaker....maybe the drought will finally be over and it will be a wet summer

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                Originally posted by theresonly187 View Post
                                                                                enid supposed to get 3" of rain next week....
                                                                                looks like it will be a slow soaker....maybe the drought will finally be over and it will be a wet summer
                                                                                Or the forecast will completely bust and we won’t get any rain until late September…. On a day with with zero percent chance of precipitation. We’re getting close to the faucet shutting off climatology wise.

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  Originally posted by Fostercluck View Post
                                                                                  One of my possible retirement destinations in Northern Michigan (Gaylord) took an EF3 yesterday with two dead. First EF3+ in Michigan in ten years. Storm later skirted just north of our family lake property.

                                                                                  https://www.weather.gov/apx/severe-2022May20



                                                                                  Bernard Spear is lucky to be alive.

                                                                                  Also, at the 1 minute mark there is a car with headlights on moving toward him. I wonder what happened to that car. Looked like it might have taken a direct hit.
                                                                                  Live Free or Die!

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    Originally posted by Harry Weenis View Post

                                                                                    Or the forecast will completely bust and we won’t get any rain until late September…. On a day with with zero percent chance of precipitation. We’re getting close to the faucet shutting off climatology wise.
                                                                                    that's quite possible...
                                                                                    there is a 90% chance of rain monday night...
                                                                                    many times...when the chance gets above 60%....the models are lying and it does turn out to be a bust...
                                                                                    if u read the detailed forecast....there is a passing mention of a "dry slot".....so you're probably right about the bust...
                                                                                    especially since i have about a 1000 acres of milo and soybeans planted.....and rain would be very helpful...
                                                                                    not to be too pessimistic...but that's how farming goes sometimes...

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      Originally posted by theresonly187 View Post

                                                                                      that's quite possible...
                                                                                      there is a 90% chance of rain monday night...
                                                                                      many times...when the chance gets above 60%....the models are lying and it does turn out to be a bust...
                                                                                      if u read the detailed forecast....there is a passing mention of a "dry slot".....so you're probably right about the bust...
                                                                                      especially since i have about a 1000 acres of milo and soybeans planted.....and rain would be very helpful...
                                                                                      not to be too pessimistic...but that's how farming goes sometimes...
                                                                                      My FIL farms in Western OK. He's said for years their land is in a spot where storms seem to split and go right around!

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        Originally posted by SoonerMBA View Post

                                                                                        My FIL farms in Western OK. He's said for years their land is in a spot where storms seem to split and go right around!
                                                                                        the farther west u go from I35 the tougher it gets...

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                                                                                          Originally posted by theresonly187 View Post

                                                                                          the farther west u go from I35 the tougher it gets...
                                                                                          That's because the farther west you go the closer to the desert you get.

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                                                                                            Mesonet showing chances of rain Sunday night through Wednesday night for my area. That is as far out as it goes.
                                                                                            Live Free or Die!

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              Originally posted by Harry Weenis View Post

                                                                                              Or the forecast will completely bust and we won’t get any rain until late September…. On a day with with zero percent chance of precipitation. We’re getting close to the faucet shutting off climatology wise.
                                                                                              Over the last year I've seen so many of those QPF models bust... 2" predicted, I get 0.2", 1.5" predicted, I get a quarter inch, etc.

                                                                                              After the last one, I hit a wall and swore I'd never get excited about one of those again. Yet here I am lined up to kick with Lucy holding the football again...

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                                                                                                forecast still calling for 3 1/3" in enid...

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                                                                                                  Last night was a great opportunity to cool your tiles. I hope everyone took advantage.
                                                                                                  Live Free or Die!

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    Originally posted by Stinger_1066 View Post
                                                                                                    Last night was a great opportunity to cool your tiles. I hope everyone took advantage.
                                                                                                    I'm going to really cool mine for the next couple of nights. I may not need the AC unitl July.

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      Originally posted by bushmaster06 View Post

                                                                                                      That's because the farther west you go the closer to the desert you get.
                                                                                                      Obligatory:

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