Severe Weather Thread Vol. 3-Featuring SATP

[Maximus]

To anyone

That’s not good news...It looks like the cell is becoming better established... I’m wondering if it has trouble staying well established if the cap is stronger as it moves our way?
I have forgotten a lot and a lot has changed since I took Met at OU in the late 1970’s.....is there a map that describes where the Cap is strongest or is it all still looking at individual soundings?

OUN sounding still showed a pretty good inversion. Multiple noses. Ouwx was looking at an area with little cloud cover to where surface heating could weaken it. I believe a small cell fired down in TX, but didn't last long. I guess we'll know soon enough where we stand if something pops.

[BoomerSooner33]

OUN sounding still showed a pretty good inversion. Multiple noses. Ouwx was looking at an area with little cloud cover to where surface heating could weaken it. I believe a small cell fired down in TX, but didn't last long. I guess we'll know soon enough where we stand if something pops.

It's popping...

[Maximus]

It's popping...

Here we goooooo! I'm hanging on to my butt. Round 3.

[OU48A]

Discussion from NWS Norman about issuing a tornado watch soon....someone with Tweet skills can link it.

Mesoscale Discussion 0733 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 Areas affected...southwest into central and northeast OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 221912Z - 222045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Monitoring for signs of convective initiation and sustained thunderstorm development. A tornado watch is being considered in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis indicates a triple point over southwest OK with a dryline extending southward into west TX. A maritime warm front has progressed northward across the I-44 corridor in OK and a decaying cold front is located from north-central OK northeastward through southeast KS into west-central MO. Surface observations show temperatures rising into the lower 80s over much of OK south of the warm front with dewpoints in the lower 70s. The warmest conditions are located over southwest OK where convective temperatures are close to being breached. A 17z Norman, OK special sounding showed moderate buoyancy but the boundary layer had not destabilized appreciably. Since then, a very unstable airmass has developed over central OK with 3500 J/kg MLCAPE estimated by objective analysis. KTLX VAD data over central OK indicates a supercell wind profile is in place with 50kt effective shear and around 100 m^2/s^2 0-1km SRH. Model guidance indicates the LLJ will gradually strengthen this afternoon into the early evening. Forecast hodographs become most favorable for low-level mesocyclones/tornadoes during the 5pm-8pm period with a classic sickle-shape structure and 0-1km SRH increasing to 200 m^2/s^2. Models are suggestive of a more isolated coverage from near OKC and south/southwest with widely scattered storms possible farther northeast into northeast OK. Although the severe risk is conditional, high-end severe weather would likely accompany any intense supercell.

[traxx]

The wx-geeks at the Washington Post covered yesterday's chaser insanity pretty well - https://www.washingtonpost.com/weath...=.f74bde0c4fb6

Multiple chasers with red/blue police lights “pulling over” others to clear their path to the storm

Isn't that kinda illegal?

[ouwxgrad_v2]

PDS tornado watch coming. Crazy stuff. The cumulus field I was watching earlier seems to have died down a bit, but people near Lawton need to not sleep on that batch of cells that just fired off to the south.

[oucub23]

Isn't that kinda illegal?

No. Not kinda.

[ouwxgrad_v2]

Isn't that kinda illegal?

I would LOVE for every one of those yahoos to get chucked in jail. It's bush league and it's dangerous.

[Dr. Argus Beefstick]

PDS tornado watch coming. Crazy stuff. The cumulus field I was watching earlier seems to have died down a bit, but people near Lawton need to not sleep on that batch of cells that just fired off to the south.

It's here. This seems about right after Monday.

[Pphilfran]

Shit

Warning for me

[SoonerSean]

Like I said earlier... we were warned for days about Monday and instead it will be a day like today when the shit hits the fan.

Phone alert just came through for a tornado watch until 10.

[BoomerSooner33]

PDS WATCH ISSUED?

Yep

[ouwxgrad_v2]

Like I said earlier... we were warned for days about Monday and instead it will be a day like today when the shit hits the fan.

Phone alert just came through for a tornado watch until 10.

Well, a big one hasn't happened yet. Whether it does or not, though, your general point was a good one.

[ouwxgrad_v2]

Those little bitty cells due south of the metro are starting to look a bit more robust as well.

[Pphilfran]

They are growing fast.

i hope the one by me doesn't take the march up I 44

[ouwxgrad_v2]

They are growing fast.

i hope the one by me doesn't take the march up I 44

That's where pretty much everybody's mind is at the moment. It's still getting organized, but if it doesn't crap itself out ... could be bad.

[ouwxgrad_v2]

Some rotation in the cell south of Tribbey. The big one by Lawton is still figuring things out.

[Pphilfran]

Only light rain now. I think it will be mostly east.

[MJSooner]

Only light rain now. I think it will be mostly east.

Do.not.want.

[BoomerSooner33]

Cell just broke away from the bigger cell near Lawton.

[ouwxgrad_v2]

Cell just broke away from the bigger cell near Lawton.

Yep, it's throwing off left splits and might be starting to turn right. Not a good combo.

[BoomerSooner33]

Yep, it's throwing off left splits and might be starting to turn right. Not a good combo.

It is blowing up fast...That may be a problem...

[GoSooners7]

Funny that this day, which is kinda flying under the radar, may be a worst situation than a very hyped Monday. Usually works like that.

[BoomerSooner33]

Funny that this day, which is kinda flying under the radar, may be a worst situation than a very hyped Monday. Usually works like that.

Cap is a bitch

[Stinger_1066]

So I'm really wanting to be able to throw my steaks on the grill around 5 pm. Will I be able to?

[SoonerSean]

Payne said OKC by 5:00. Just like usual. They always seem Tobput a bullseye on the metro during the evening commute.

[BoomerSooner33]

Yep, it's throwing off left splits and might be starting to turn right. Not a good combo.

Thankfully it looks like it is weakening

[ouwxgrad_v2]

Thankfully it looks like it is weakening

Nope. Rotation is picking up, heading toward Geronimo. Lawton needs to keep an eye out as well.

[OU48A]

OU is shutting down campus right now

[MJSooner]

So I'm really wanting to be able to throw my steaks on the grill around 5 pm. Will I be able to?

You need to get yourself a covered patio.

[BoomerSooner33]

Nope. Rotation is picking up, heading toward Geronimo. Lawton needs to keep an eye out as well.

Sorry, the smaller cell. The bigger one is about to drop a nader

[Pphilfran]

My storm seems to be reinventing itself to my south. Looks like I will get hit after all

[bushmaster06]

You need to get yourself a covered patio.

This. Don’t be poor, Stinger.

[Stinger_1066]

Sounds like people headed home an hour or so from now from OKC toward Chickasha may be driving right into the teeth of it.

[Pphilfran]

Light rain with sun shining

[Pphilfran]

Tying to drop one

[ouwxgrad_v2]

Sorry, the smaller cell. The bigger one is about to drop a nader

Ah, got ya.

[Stinger_1066]

You need to get yourself a covered patio.

This. Don’t be poor, Stinger.

Covered patios are fine during rain showers. They don't help much during tornados.

Besides, it is a work in process. The slab is poured. I'm building the pergola and installing the entertainment system and hot tub myself. Still won't be completely covered though.

The new slab is on the left. The pergola and hot tub will go there. The dog is under the existing covered portion.

[ouwxgrad_v2]

My storm seems to be reinventing itself to my south. Looks like I will get hit after all

Yep. The area of rotation near Geronimo has backed off, but there's another one strengthening and heading toward the south side of Lawton. Be careful.

Update: Actually, that's the storm throwing off another split. Good news in the short term, maybe not so good when it comes to long term development.

[BoomerSooner33]

Ah, got ya.

That smaller cell blowing up again???

[Pphilfran]

They just can't get over the hump. Thank goodness

[MJSooner]

Tying to drop one

You need to pinch it off and get out there and be weather aware!

[ouwxgrad_v2]

That smaller cell blowing up again???

Trying to. Still holding out hope that this will be like Monday, with one key ingredient just not quite there when the storms try to go up.

[GoSooners7]

In Tulsa, they just closed the bridge from Riverside and Peoria. Damn, traffic is gonna be a bitch for many many people trying to get home.

[ouwxgrad_v2]

Stuff now trying to go up north of Piedmont. Nothing serious there just yet.

[Pphilfran]

I think that storm by me is going to go off. Seeing a hail core starting to build

[ouwxgrad_v2]

Also, rotation developing southwest fo Konawa.

[ouwxgrad_v2]

I think that storm by me is going to go off. Seeing a hail core starting to build

Yep. Structure's hit or miss right now, but the power is there, and the environment favors organization.

[Pphilfran]

East of me

[Stinger_1066]

Payne is trying to convince me to delay my dinner plans a tad.