Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? Should we care?

[OUwasp]

When I first heard something about this, I figured it to be the same old simmering. But now it seems to have gotten very serious, with Russia having over 100k troops poised at the border between the former Soviet brothers. Why amass that number of troops with winter bearing down? The US and Russian leaders are talking today about the crisis. Are any vital US interests threatened in this situation?

[Stinger_1066]

When I first heard something about this, I figured it to be the same old simmering. But now it seems to have gotten very serious, with Russia having over 100k troops poised at the border between the former Soviet brothers. Why amass that number of troops with winter bearing down? The US and Russian leaders are talking today about the crisis. Are any vital US interests threatened in this situation?

Vital US interests or just embarrassing evidence of corrupt business deals?

[UCO4Sooners]

Ukraine is #2 in Europe with natural gas reserves. There's your cause of interest.

[Meatgator]

Just howitzer a bunch of Popav vodka bottles over the boarder for a few months. That’ll keep em from moving too fast.

Unless it’s like 1MM troops, they’re not doing shit.

[Sooner Sam]

Vladimir’s getting the band back together.

[Chauvinistic.Jesus]

I messaged somebody I know in Russia. I told them there are rumblings here about this, from my perspective people seem divided on if it's of any concern to the United States, and asked for their opinion.

Who knows. I am sure it’s just our troops training, and on Russian territory we can do what we want. NATO troops and ships next to Russian borders are ok? Problems between Russia and Ukraine is not US’s business. If Europe and US didn’t support Ukrainian fascists, there never been a military conflict. Russians are not going to fight against Ukrainians, we are brothers and sisters, but we hate fascists who killed innocent people and burned people alive in Odessa.

If NATO going to support them military way, Russia could do the same. It’s our borders and we will always protect it.

And the answer to those who are: “US must step in” ask them for example: what if Hawaiians would decide to forbid Americans to speak English language in Hawaii, and start to kill Americans there and then ask Russia for protection, what US would do?

[SoonerKA1999]

Just howitzer a bunch of Popav vodka bottles over the boarder for a few months. That’ll keep em from moving too fast.

Unless it’s like 1MM troops, they’re not doing shit.

Russia has over 100k troops on the Ukrainian Border right now with more on the way. To put that into perspective, the US invaded and took over Iraq with only 192k troops. (With only a small fraction of those troops being actual combat troops.) We rolled into Baghdad in what, 2 weeks?

[OU48A]

I have seen commentary that says the Russian could invade this next spring, but Russia is historically well equipped for military action in the dead of winter when everything is in a deep freeze. In the event of an invasion Europe would likely see its energy it receives from the east cut off.

[theresonly187]

if Russia wants Ukraine....nothing we can or should do about it....
Americans shouldn't die for Ukraine...

[Dagnorbert]

if Russia wants Ukraine....nothing we can or should do about it....
Americans shouldn't die for Ukraine...

I think the last time an American died for another country’s people and not another country’s resources was WWII.

We are waaaay passed that. If US billionaires decide there’s money to be made, off we go in the name of democracy!!!

[theresonly187]

I think the last time an American died for another country’s people and not another country’s resources was WWII.

We are waaaay passed that. If US billionaires decide there’s money to be made, off we go in the name of democracy!!!

what resources did korea/viet nam have that our billionaires wanted?

[Middle Aged Man]

We can go wave rainbow flags and tell the Russians that they are mean. Other than that, we have squandered our ability to provide any world leadership over the past 30 years.

[theresonly187]

just one white country trying to colonize another......no one in this country will care....
not that we should care....just an observation

[Me And My Butt]

Ukraine is #2 in Europe with natural gas reserves. There's your cause of interest.

Only half correct. Ukraine’s reserves are second to Norway among European countries only if you exclude Russia….whose gas is primarily produced East of the Urals in Asia.

Despite having huge reserves, Ukraine produces 670,885 MM CF of gas….per year. That’s 36th ranked in the world. Ukraine has basically been self sufficient, not developing more gas than they needed domestically. A lot of untapped potential, but a lot of investment required.

Russia has a huge pipeline network suppling much of Europe with gas, much of which runs through Ukraine. US’s and other countries sanctioning of new gas pipelines forces Russia to route a lot of gas through their assets running through Ukraine. Russia’s concerns are two-fold:

1. An unfriendly Ukraine may try to prevent Russia from using lines through Ukraine via regulation.

2. Ukraine may decide to block Russia gas so they can use the assets to actually develop their own production and back Russian gas out of Europe. At which point the value of the new lines they built is much less.


Having said all that, Natural Gas flow into Europe from the Middle East too. Total gas supply is absolutely not an issue. Russia believes they can work with the Middle East cartel to control supply.

Norway and Ukraine are the two that can prevent OPEC + 1 from controlling EU gas prices. Norway alone can’t…Norway and a developed Ukraine can.

[OUspark]

I hope Russia invades Europe. Things have been boring since the C-17 Take-offs from Kabul.

[OUspark]

When I first heard something about this, I figured it to be the same old simmering. But now it seems to have gotten very serious, with Russia having over 100k troops poised at the border between the former Soviet brothers. Why amass that number of troops with winter bearing down? The US and Russian leaders are talking today about the crisis. Are any vital US interests threatened in this situation?

I’m glad I didn’t start a “Hey Russia Wats Up” thread. Stinger gets so triggered and the Home hates all the extra diaper changes. Good thread. I wasn’t real interested in the build up as Vlad is always stirring the pot. The Media is locking onto to this so they can toss softballs instead of bring up stories about the US Mexico border fiasco.

[Stinger_1066]

I have seen commentary that says the Russian could invade this next spring, but Russia is historically well equipped for military action in the dead of winter when everything is in a deep freeze. In the event of an invasion Europe would likely see its energy it receives from the east cut off.

Wrong.

Russia won't cut off the gas when they invade.

They will cut off the gas if the west retaliates.

Putin has western Europe over a barrel.

[KCRuf/Nek]

Wrong.

Russia won't cut off the gas when they invade.

They will cut off the gas if the west retaliates.

Putin has western Europe over a barrel.

So was Vlad told to cut it out?

[OUspark]

Wrong.

Russia won't cut off the gas when they invade.

They will cut off the gas if the west retaliates.

Putin has western Europe over a barrel.

Thanks Angela

[SoonerMBA]

NATO is considering adding Ukraine as a member. This puts NATO on the Russian border! NATO was created for European countries to defend against the Soviet Union in 1949. Now there is no Soviet Union, so why do we need a NATO? The solution to the dispute is to rightfully disband NATO and respect the sovereignty of Russia's borders.

[OUspark]

Who has the football?

[Nirvana Norman]

Just give Ukraine a small nuke.

[Sooner Schooner]

Who has the football?

Kamala...you don't think they trust Brandon do you?

[OB2.0]

We should stay the fuck out of this bullshit business. Aren't we tired of being Europe's military?

[Sooner5030]

stay out of it for the most part

but lend them a bunch of javelins and other shit to see how effective they are against T-90s

[OUspark]

Kamala...you don't think they trust Brandon do you?

Huh?

[Just JK]

not to get into a tucker carlson debate - but he had a pretty interesting take on this last night - one that's worth a look/watch

[Just JK]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUwE_QrXLRI

[theresonly187]

Just give Ukraine a small nuke.

might not be a bad idea....except half or more Ukrainians support Russia.
but if Europe wants to do something about Russia....go for it.....just leave us out of it...
bigger picture tho.....the only way to stop Russia.....and china in the future....will be with nuclear weapons.....
so u have two options.....destroy the world....or let them do what they want....
and they will do what they want....
the worst part is that we have enabled china by building them into an economic and military superpower.....with American dollars...

[Sooner Schooner]

Huh?

I thought you were referring to the nuclear football.

[OUspark]

I thought you were referring to the nuclear football.

I don't do politics. Especially Political Football. It's much better having politics in one place like a mental institution. The DB Secret Police are watching so be careful

[TheBoots]

Russia already is in Ukraine. Ukraine better suck it up, or lose the entire region.

This is about oil and gas.

Making Biden look week is just a collateral benefit

[ChocoLab]

Just hope this doesn't turn into an extremely dangerous wag the dog situation with Biden's polling in the toilet. Russia --- obviously -- isn't Afghanistan or Iraq.

[OUspark]

Just hope this doesn't turn into an extremely dangerous wag the dog situation with Biden's polling in the toilet. Russia --- obviously -- isn't Afghanistan or Iraq.

It's getting even more dicey

A senior Russian diplomat doubled down on Gerasimov’s warning by saying that the failure to stem the mounting tensions could push Russia and the West to a redux of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis that put the world on the verge of a nuclear war.

https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-ukraine-moscow-kyiv-8b311835f8940dce18b415a369f050f4

[TheBoots]

Just hope this doesn't turn into an extremely dangerous wag the dog situation with Biden's polling in the toilet. Russia --- obviously -- isn't Afghanistan or Iraq.

He is having a sternly worded letter drafted as we speak.

[Meatgator]

Just give Ukraine a small nuke.

[OB2.0]

I have a hard time believing anything nuclear could possibly come of this. Who benefits from that? There are no more ideologues left in control of world governments, just greedy greedy bastards. A nuclear war would hurt their bottom lines.

[OUspark]

I have a hard time believing anything nuclear could possibly come of this. Who benefits from that? There are no more ideologues left in control of world governments, just greedy greedy bastards. A nuclear war would hurt their bottom lines.

This fella will bring them to their knees. He doesn't even pack a lunch.

[OUwasp]

Seems like the Russo rubber band as taut as ever. Also in the South China Sea, and the Iran-Israel saber-rattling is clanging loudly. Will the pressure subside again? Or not?

[OUwasp]

What's this they are saying....?



They may turn the US into radioactive ash?

Russia 'could turn United States to ash', Kremlin mouthpiece warns amid fears of war


TV presenter Dmitry Kiselyov, who has been called Vladimir Putin’s “mouthpiece” and “propagandist-in-chief”, accused the US of peddling “fakes about Russia’s intention to invade Ukraine”

A top Kremlin 'propagandist' suggested Russia could turn the US into 'radioactive ash' amid rising tensions over Ukraine.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russia-could-turn-united-states-25625707

[VUGear]

U.S. Considers Backing an Insurgency if Russia Invades Ukraine

Now, in what would be a major turnaround, senior Biden administration officials are warning that the United States could throw its weight behind a Ukrainian insurgency should President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia invade Ukraine.

How the United States, which just exited two decades of war in Afghanistan, might pivot to funding and supporting an insurgency from fighting one is still being worked out. But even a conversation about how far the United States would go to subvert Russian aims in the event of an invasion has revived the specter of a new Cold War and suddenly made real the prospect of the beginnings of a so-called great power conflict.

In Afghanistan, the United States showed itself to be dismal at fighting insurgencies. But when it comes to funding them, military experts say it is a different ballgame.

[ ... ]

“If Putin invades Ukraine with a major military force, U.S. and NATO military assistance — intelligence, cyber, anti-armor and anti-air weapons, offensive naval missiles — would ratchet up significantly,” said James Stavridis, a retired four-star Navy admiral who was the supreme allied commander at NATO. “And if it turned into a Ukrainian insurgency, Putin should realize that after fighting insurgencies ourselves for two decades, we know how to arm, train and energize them.”

[OUwasp]

Cue The Empire Strikes Back theme...

Russia wants to return the time of the USSR


Sugar Mizzy January 9, 2022



In geopolitical terms, Russia is trying to restore the order that exists under the USSR, said US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. According to Blinken, this is one of the goals of the President of the Russian Federation. Vladimir Putin…

“This means restoring influence over countries that were previously part of the Soviet Union,” the US Secretary of State said in an interview with CNN. He called this scenario “unacceptable.”

Blinken said Washington is not ready to make concessions.

“This is not about making concessions, but about understanding whether, in the context of dialogue and diplomacy, both sides can take steps that will reduce tensions,” he is allowed. The secretary added that the US does not expect any “breakthrough” in the negotiations in the coming weeks.

Blinken’s statements came on the eve of talks between Russia and the United States on security guarantees in Europe, which are to begin in Geneva on January 10. Russian delegation already arrived there… Further consultations are to take place in Brussels in the format of the Russia-NATO Council.

https://europe-cities.com/2022/01/09/russia-wants-to-return-the-time-of-the-ussr/

[Sooner Sam]

Cue The Empire Strikes Back theme...

Russia wants to return the time of the USSR


Sugar Mizzy January 9, 2022



In geopolitical terms, Russia is trying to restore the order that exists under the USSR, said US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. According to Blinken, this is one of the goals of the President of the Russian Federation. Vladimir Putin…

“This means restoring influence over countries that were previously part of the Soviet Union,” the US Secretary of State said in an interview with CNN. He called this scenario “unacceptable.”

Blinken said Washington is not ready to make concessions.

“This is not about making concessions, but about understanding whether, in the context of dialogue and diplomacy, both sides can take steps that will reduce tensions,” he is allowed. The secretary added that the US does not expect any “breakthrough” in the negotiations in the coming weeks.

Blinken’s statements came on the eve of talks between Russia and the United States on security guarantees in Europe, which are to begin in Geneva on January 10. Russian delegation already arrived there… Further consultations are to take place in Brussels in the format of the Russia-NATO Council.

https://europe-cities.com/2022/01/09...e-of-the-ussr/

I thought Putin made that very clear when he first assumed office.

[SoonerMagick]

Wrong.

Russia won't cut off the gas when they invade.

They will cut off the gas if the west retaliates.

Putin has western Europe over a barrel.

Honest question:

Could The US supply Western Europe with Natural Gas at a reasonable cost that's good for both parties?

[Stinger_1066]

Honest question:

Could The US supply Western Europe with Natural Gas at a reasonable cost that's good for both parties?

We may already be doing that. We do export natural gas, and prices in Europe are soaring.

[SoonerMagick]

We may already be doing that. We do export natural gas, and prices in Europe are soaring.

IMO, it'd be a good move for Western European countries to not get natural gas from The Ukraine anymore if the worst happens. All I can see is The United States and Canada helping them out... maybe at no profit due to idealism, just "at cost."

I knew I could get a good, informed answer from an Oklahoman RE: natural gas!

[OUwasp]

Honest question:

Could The US supply Western Europe with Natural Gas at a reasonable cost that's good for both parties?

I'm just guessing nothing between N. America and Europe would be very efficient. But...Israel stands ready to fill the gap.

https://www.energy-sea.gov.il/English-Site/Lobby/Articles/Pages/The-Israel-Europe-Gas-Pipeline-Agreed-on-in-The-Energy-Ministers'-Summit-Hosted-by-Minister-Steinitz.aspx#:~:text=The%20planned%202%2C000%2Dkm %20pipeline,option%20from%20Israel%20to%20Europe.

[SoonerMagick]

I'm just guessing nothing between N. America and Europe would be very efficient. But...Israel stands ready to fill the gap.

https://www.energy-sea.gov.il/English-Site/Lobby/Articles/Pages/The-Israel-Europe-Gas-Pipeline-Agreed-on-in-The-Energy-Ministers'-Summit-Hosted-by-Minister-Steinitz.aspx#:~:text=The%20planned%202%2C000%2Dkm %20pipeline,option%20from%20Israel%20to%20Europe.

In the interest of the preservation of The State of Israel, I'd rather them use everything they have for their own self-reliance (going out on a limb here)- "don't export anything you could use in your own self defense." I understand the US and Canada would have to ship it, and I do have an interest in Western Europe saying, "no gas from the Russian Empire", but I think it's smarter to stockpile every little thing Israel can.

[Stinger_1066]

IMO, it'd be a good move for Western European countries to not get natural gas from The Ukraine anymore if the worst happens. All I can see is The United States and Canada helping them out... maybe at no profit due to idealism, just "at cost."

I knew I could get a good, informed answer from an Oklahoman RE: natural gas!

There is no way we can supply all they need by transporting gas on ships. And no, we would not be selling to them at cost, nor should we. Sell it to them at a competitive price. Just undercut the Russians a little bit. But they are still going to have to rely on Russia to fill most of their need.

[SoonerHank]

There are rumors the White House is considering military action if Russia invaded Ukraine. That would be horrible. We don’t need to get involved in a war with Russia over Ukraine. That’s insanity. With a 30% approval rating, they’re desperate. This would be a huge mistake.